YOU KNOW WHAT TIME IT IS? SPECIAL ELECTION TIME. Yes, in case you had forgotten, the eighth special election of the session will occur next Tuesday, Aug. 18 in the 12th House District. This will be Pennsylvania's 50th — yes, 50th! — legislative and congressional special since 2017.

Since special elections occur on random Tuesdays, not as the climax of multimonth, well-funded campaign frenzies, results don’t always follow norms. Sometimes they produce dramatic flips, like Democrats taking a state Senate seat in Lancaster last year. But the expectation of drama can also lead to letdowns, like this March when Democrats got a little too enthused, perhaps, about an Altoona special election they ended up losing by almost 13 percentage points. 

But Democrats are overperforming in special elections nationwide in the lead-up to a midterm in which they are also expected to do well. As longtime GOP consultant Christopher Nicholas told Access Harrisburg, “I don’t think I would say Democrats are full of shit for feeling bullish on a special election anywhere.”